Department Store stalwart Macy’s business is down between 15% and 20% in the all important womens division.
Major headwinds as we head into the all important Black Friday Holiday weekend include:
1) Stripes , Patterns , Tweeds are not working. Sweater Business is off 30% to plan
2) Better Knitwear is down 15% to plan and 22% vs. Last year
3) Outerwear as a class is not working and floor looks oversold as there is excess inventory all over floor. This excess inventory will compress margins. It’s early December as coats look horrible. Typically Macys does 50% of coat volume in December. They are currently well below plan.
Expect an announcement of very aggressive discounting as Black Friday looks bleak.
This doesnt bold well for dept store mid caps BONT and SMRT
We are bearish
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